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Risk & Resilience

Monte Carlo Lead-Time Risk

Simulate random lead times & demand - see the distribution of stockouts and cycle-service risk

Distribution of Demand During Lead Time

Convergence of stockout probability

Results (Monte Carlo)

Stockout probability
0%
Achieved service
0%
95th pct DDLT
0
Avg shortfall
0

Inputs

About this tool

Monte Carlo Lead-Time Risk

The concept

Lead times vary; Monte Carlo turns that uncertainty into a service-level distribution.

How it works

Thousands of simulated cycles sample lead time and demand to estimate stockout risk.

Winning strategy

Size safety stock from the tail of the distribution, not the average lead time.

safety stock covers demand over lead-time percentile
Monte CarloLead timePercentileStockout risk